2024年 夏枯れ相場 or サマーラリーはいつから？どっちなの？
調査対象と期間：過去12年の日経平均とNYダウの６月〜８月
・夏枯れは、日本（日経平均）にあり、米国（NYダウ）にはない
・サマーラリーは、日本（日経平均）にはなく、米国（NYダウ）にある
・夏枯れは、日本（日経平均）の8月（6勝6敗、-0.24%）
・日経平均は、6〜8月期間中、勝率も騰落率もあまり特徴がない
・サマーラリーは、米国（NYダウ）の7月(11勝1敗、+2.38%)
・NYダウの7月は1年間の中でも11月につぎ2番目に株価騰落率が高い
結論：12年間の平均的な傾向としては、夏相場では日経平均は殆ど動きがなく、米国は7月に株価が大きく上がる傾向がある。
2012年～2023年の株価勝敗と騰落率
|
|
6月 |
7月 |
8月 |
| 日経平均 |
勝敗 |
7勝5敗 |
6勝6敗 |
6勝6敗 |
| 騰落率 |
0.72% |
0.57% |
-0.24% |
| NYダウ |
勝敗 |
7勝5敗 |
11勝1敗 |
6勝6敗 |
| 騰落率 |
0.79% |
2.38% |
-0.36% |
日米指数 月別騰落率（過去13年平均）
過去13年平均騰落率
日経平均
|
1月 |
2月 |
3月 |
4月 |
5月 |
6月 |
7月 |
8月 |
9月 |
10月 |
11月 |
12月 |
| 2012年 |
4.11% | 10.46% | 3.71% | -5.58% | -10.27% | 5.43% | -3.46% | 1.67% | 0.34% | 0.66% | 5.80% | 10.05% |
| 2013年 |
7.15% | 3.78% | 7.25% | 11.80% | -0.62% | -0.71% | -0.07% | -2.04% | 7.97% | -0.88% | 9.31% | 4.02% |
| 2014年 |
-8.45% | -0.49% | -0.09% | -3.53% | 2.29% | 3.62% | 3.03% | -1.26% | 4.86% | 1.49% | 6.37% | -0.05% |
| 2015年 |
1.28% | 6.36% | 2.18% | 1.63% | 5.34% | -1.59% | 1.73% | -8.23% | -7.95% | 9.75% | 3.48% | -3.61% |
| 2016年 |
-7.96% | -8.51% | 4.57% | -0.55% | 3.41% | -9.63% | 6.38% | 1.92% | -2.59% | 5.93% | 5.07% | 4.40% |
| 2017年 |
-0.38% | 0.41% | -1.10% | 1.52% | 2.36% | 1.95% | -0.54% | -1.40% | 3.61% | 8.13% | 3.24% | 0.18% |
| 2018年 |
1.46% | -4.46% | -2.78% | 4.72% | -1.18% | 0.46% | 1.12% | 1.38% | 5.49% | -9.12% | 1.96% | -10.45% |
| 2019年 |
3.79% | 2.94% | -0.84% | 4.97% | -7.45% | 3.28% | 1.15% | -3.80% | 5.08% | 5.38% | 1.60% | 1.56% |
| 2020年 |
-1.91% | -8.89% | -10.53% | 6.75% | 8.34% | 1.88% | -2.59% | 6.59% | 0.20% | -0.90% | 15.04% | 3.82% |
| 2021年 |
0.80% | 4.71% | 0.73% | -1.25% | 0.16% | -0.24% | -5.24% | 2.95% | 4.85% | -1.90% | -3.71% | 3.49% |
| 2022年 |
-6.22% | -1.76% | 4.88% | -3.50% | 1.61% | -3.25% | 5.34% | 1.04% | -7.67% | 6.36% | 1.38% | -6.70% |
| 2023年 |
4.72% | 0.43% | 2.17% | 2.91% | 7.04% | 7.45% | -0.05% | -1.67% | -2.34% | -3.14% | 8.52% | -0.07% |
| 2024年 |
8.43% | 7.94% | 3.07% | -4.86% | 0.21% | 2.85% | -1.22% | -1.16% | -1.88% | 3.06% | -2.23% | 4.41% |
| 2025年 |
-0.81% | -6.11% | -4.14% | | | | | | | | | |
TOPIX
|
1月 |
2月 |
3月 |
4月 |
5月 |
6月 |
7月 |
8月 |
9月 |
10月 |
11月 |
12月 |
| 2012年 |
3.66% | 10.68% | 2.20% | -5.86% | -10.54% | 7.03% | -4.39% | -0.63% | 0.79% | 0.67% | 5.27% | 10.02% |
| 2013年 |
9.36% | 3.77% | 6.05% | 12.60% | -2.52% | -0.17% | -0.19% | -2.27% | 7.96% | 0.01% | 5.39% | 3.47% |
| 2014年 |
-6.27% | -0.74% | -0.72% | -3.36% | 3.35% | 5.09% | 2.13% | -0.89% | 3.78% | 0.55% | 5.75% | -0.20% |
| 2015年 |
0.54% | 7.69% | 1.26% | 3.22% | 5.08% | -2.58% | 1.79% | -7.38% | -8.19% | 10.42% | 1.42% | -2.09% |
| 2016年 |
-7.45% | -9.37% | 3.80% | -0.49% | 2.93% | -9.71% | 6.17% | 0.51% | -0.51% | 5.31% | 5.49% | 3.35% |
| 2017年 |
0.20% | 0.90% | -1.48% | 1.27% | 2.39% | 2.78% | 0.42% | -0.07% | 3.55% | 5.45% | 1.48% | 1.42% |
| 2018年 |
1.05% | -3.73% | -2.94% | 3.55% | -1.68% | -0.97% | 1.33% | -1.04% | 4.72% | -9.42% | 1.30% | -10.40% |
| 2019年 |
4.91% | 2.56% | -1.00% | 1.65% | -6.53% | 2.57% | 0.90% | -3.40% | 5.02% | 4.99% | 1.94% | 1.29% |
| 2020年 |
-2.14% | -10.30% | -7.14% | 4.35% | 6.81% | -0.31% | -4.02% | 8.16% | 0.45% | -2.84% | 11.12% | 2.84% |
| 2021年 |
0.23% | 3.08% | 4.80% | -2.85% | 1.48% | 0.89% | -2.19% | 3.14% | 3.54% | -1.43% | -3.64% | 3.32% |
| 2022年 |
-4.84% | -0.47% | 3.15% | -2.40% | 0.69% | -2.19% | 3.71% | 1.08% | -6.65% | 5.09% | 2.91% | -4.38% |
| 2023年 |
4.42% | 0.91% | 0.51% | 2.69% | 3.56% | 7.41% | 1.48% | 0.41% | -0.37% | -3.00% | 5.38% | -0.36% |
| 2024年 |
7.81% | 4.89% | 3.48% | -0.93% | 1.07% | 1.34% | -0.55% | -2.92% | -2.46% | 1.87% | -0.55% | 3.89% |
| 2025年 |
0.13% | -3.82% | -0.87% | | | | | | | | | |
グロース市場250
|
1月 |
2月 |
3月 |
4月 |
5月 |
6月 |
7月 |
8月 |
9月 |
10月 |
11月 |
12月 |
| 2012年 |
-6.63% | 5.74% | -1.25% | 1.38% | -21.14% | 16.25% | -9.59% | 2.01% | 4.82% | 9.01% | 3.72% | 3.04% |
| 2013年 |
31.48% | 7.92% | 12.25% | 35.83% | 1.29% | -25.49% | 12.40% | -11.36% | 30.27% | -4.24% | 9.27% | 6.99% |
| 2014年 |
-0.30% | -12.47% | -8.34% | -9.12% | 11.44% | 16.02% | 8.02% | -1.17% | -3.26% | -5.09% | 8.60% | -5.23% |
| 2015年 |
-2.72% | -0.48% | -0.13% | 3.46% | 5.38% | 3.03% | -2.39% | -15.26% | -6.13% | 5.37% | 7.26% | 2.32% |
| 2016年 |
-6.29% | 0.88% | 21.72% | 10.85% | 1.16% | -11.81% | -8.82% | -1.79% | 4.90% | -1.26% | -1.47% | 2.19% |
| 2017年 |
5.43% | 6.59% | 1.09% | -3.78% | 7.22% | 6.96% | -2.30% | -4.65% | -0.70% | 3.74% | 2.92% | 5.55% |
| 2018年 |
6.61% | -5.65% | -2.65% | -5.32% | -0.60% | -3.96% | -4.68% | 0.95% | 2.71% | -15.78% | 11.44% | -19.69% |
| 2019年 |
10.54% | 2.26% | 4.10% | -1.17% | -4.28% | -1.08% | 1.17% | -7.04% | 4.14% | -0.23% | 4.71% | -1.93% |
| 2020年 |
-8.26% | -14.91% | -11.50% | 27.63% | 24.13% | 3.02% | -5.32% | 17.05% | 9.36% | -4.51% | 5.22% | -2.91% |
| 2021年 |
1.04% | 0.42% | -0.89% | -0.13% | -4.30% | 4.99% | -10.11% | 4.61% | -0.69% | -1.82% | -3.26% | -7.75% |
| 2022年 |
-23.26% | -4.28% | 8.89% | -12.13% | -3.34% | -1.44% | 8.61% | 3.28% | -6.30% | 7.22% | 6.43% | -7.95% |
| 2023年 |
6.23% | -3.51% | 0.10% | -0.56% | 0.38% | 9.08% | -4.74% | -2.21% | -4.02% | -11.14% | 10.53% | -1.43% |
| 2024年 |
0.80% | 8.48% | -3.36% | -13.27% | -4.47% | 6.91% | -1.97% | 3.21% | -2.45% | -3.42% | 2.17% | 0.03% |
| 2025年 |
1.01% | 0.48% | -0.36% | | | | | | | | | |
NYダウ
|
1月 |
2月 |
3月 |
4月 |
5月 |
6月 |
7月 |
8月 |
9月 |
10月 |
11月 |
12月 |
| 2012年 |
3.40% | 2.53% | 2.01% | 0.01% | -6.21% | 3.93% | 1.00% | 0.63% | 2.65% | -2.54% | -0.54% | 0.60% |
| 2013年 |
5.77% | 1.40% | 3.73% | 1.79% | 1.86% | -1.36% | 3.96% | -4.45% | 2.16% | 2.75% | 3.48% | 3.05% |
| 2014年 |
-5.30% | 3.97% | 0.83% | 0.75% | 0.82% | 0.65% | -1.56% | 3.23% | -0.32% | 2.04% | 2.52% | -0.03% |
| 2015年 |
-3.69% | 5.64% | -1.97% | 0.36% | 0.95% | -2.17% | 0.40% | -6.57% | -1.47% | 8.47% | 0.32% | -1.66% |
| 2016年 |
-5.50% | 0.30% | 7.08% | 0.50% | 0.08% | 0.80% | 2.80% | -0.17% | -0.50% | -0.91% | 5.41% | 3.34% |
| 2017年 |
0.51% | 4.77% | -0.72% | 1.34% | 0.33% | 1.62% | 2.54% | 0.26% | 2.08% | 4.34% | 3.83% | 1.84% |
| 2018年 |
5.79% | -4.28% | -3.70% | 0.25% | 1.05% | -0.59% | 4.71% | 2.16% | 1.90% | -5.07% | 1.68% | -8.66% |
| 2019年 |
7.17% | 3.67% | 0.05% | 2.56% | -6.69% | 7.19% | 0.99% | -1.72% | 1.95% | 0.48% | 3.72% | 1.74% |
| 2020年 |
-0.99% | -10.07% | -13.62% | 10.82% | 4.45% | 1.59% | 2.38% | 7.57% | -1.85% | -5.03% | 11.84% | 3.27% |
| 2021年 |
-2.04% | 3.17% | 6.62% | 2.71% | 1.93% | -0.08% | 1.25% | 1.22% | -4.29% | 5.84% | -3.73% | 5.38% |
| 2022年 |
-3.32% | -3.53% | 2.32% | -4.91% | 0.04% | -6.71% | 6.73% | -4.06% | -8.84% | 13.95% | 5.67% | -4.17% |
| 2023年 |
2.83% | -4.19% | 1.89% | 2.48% | -3.49% | 4.56% | 3.35% | -2.36% | -3.50% | -1.36% | 8.77% | 4.84% |
| 2024年 |
1.22% | 2.22% | 2.08% | -5.00% | 2.30% | 1.12% | 4.41% | 1.76% | 1.85% | -1.34% | 7.54% | -5.27% |
| 2025年 |
4.70% | -1.58% | -4.20% | | | | | | | | | |
S&P500
|
1月 |
2月 |
3月 |
4月 |
5月 |
6月 |
7月 |
8月 |
9月 |
10月 |
11月 |
12月 |
| 2012年 |
4.36% | 4.06% | 3.13% | -0.75% | -6.27% | 3.96% | 1.26% | 1.98% | 2.42% | -1.98% | 0.28% | 0.71% |
| 2013年 |
5.04% | 1.11% | 3.60% | 1.81% | 2.08% | -1.50% | 4.95% | -3.13% | 2.97% | 4.46% | 2.80% | 2.36% |
| 2014年 |
-3.56% | 4.31% | 0.69% | 0.62% | 2.10% | 1.91% | -1.51% | 3.77% | -1.55% | 2.32% | 2.45% | -0.42% |
| 2015年 |
-3.10% | 5.49% | -1.74% | 0.85% | 1.05% | -2.10% | 1.97% | -6.26% | -2.64% | 8.30% | 0.05% | -1.75% |
| 2016年 |
-5.07% | -0.41% | 6.60% | 0.27% | 1.53% | 0.09% | 3.56% | -0.12% | -0.12% | -1.94% | 3.42% | 1.82% |
| 2017年 |
1.79% | 3.72% | -0.04% | 0.91% | 1.16% | 0.48% | 1.93% | 0.05% | 1.93% | 2.22% | 2.81% | 0.98% |
| 2018年 |
5.62% | -3.89% | -2.69% | 0.27% | 2.16% | 0.48% | 3.60% | 3.03% | 0.43% | -6.94% | 1.79% | -9.18% |
| 2019年 |
7.87% | 2.97% | 1.79% | 3.93% | -6.58% | 6.89% | 1.31% | -1.81% | 1.72% | 2.04% | 3.40% | 2.86% |
| 2020年 |
-0.16% | -8.41% | -12.51% | 12.68% | 4.53% | 1.84% | 5.51% | 7.01% | -3.92% | -2.77% | 10.75% | 3.71% |
| 2021年 |
-1.11% | 2.61% | 4.24% | 5.24% | 0.55% | 2.22% | 2.27% | 2.90% | -4.76% | 6.91% | -0.83% | 4.36% |
| 2022年 |
-5.26% | -3.14% | 3.58% | -8.80% | 0.01% | -8.39% | 9.11% | -4.24% | -9.34% | 7.99% | 5.38% | -5.90% |
| 2023年 |
6.18% | -2.61% | 3.51% | 1.46% | 0.25% | 6.47% | 3.11% | -1.77% | -4.87% | -2.20% | 8.92% | 4.42% |
| 2024年 |
1.59% | 5.17% | 3.10% | -4.16% | 4.80% | 3.47% | 1.13% | 2.28% | 2.02% | -0.99% | 5.73% | -2.50% |
| 2025年 |
2.70% | -1.42% | -5.75% | | | | | | | | | |
ナスダック
|
1月 |
2月 |
3月 |
4月 |
5月 |
6月 |
7月 |
8月 |
9月 |
10月 |
11月 |
12月 |
| 2012年 |
8.01% | 5.44% | 4.20% | -1.46% | -7.19% | 3.81% | 0.15% | 4.34% | 1.61% | -4.46% | 1.11% | 0.31% |
| 2013年 |
4.06% | 0.57% | 3.40% | 1.88% | 3.82% | -1.52% | 6.56% | -1.01% | 5.06% | 3.93% | 3.58% | 2.87% |
| 2014年 |
-1.74% | 4.98% | -2.53% | -2.01% | 3.11% | 3.90% | -0.87% | 4.82% | -1.90% | 3.06% | 3.47% | -1.16% |
| 2015年 |
-2.13% | 7.08% | -1.26% | 0.83% | 2.60% | -1.64% | 2.84% | -6.86% | -3.27% | 9.38% | 1.09% | -1.98% |
| 2016年 |
-7.86% | -1.21% | 6.84% | -1.94% | 3.62% | -2.13% | 6.60% | 0.99% | 1.89% | -2.31% | 2.59% | 1.12% |
| 2017年 |
4.30% | 3.75% | 1.48% | 2.30% | 2.50% | -0.94% | 3.38% | 1.27% | 1.05% | 3.57% | 2.17% | 0.43% |
| 2018年 |
7.36% | -1.87% | -2.88% | 0.04% | 5.32% | 0.92% | 2.15% | 5.71% | -0.78% | -9.20% | 0.34% | -9.48% |
| 2019年 |
9.74% | 3.44% | 2.61% | 4.74% | -7.93% | 7.42% | 2.11% | -2.60% | 0.46% | 3.66% | 4.50% | 3.54% |
| 2020年 |
1.99% | -6.38% | -10.12% | 15.45% | 6.75% | 5.99% | 6.83% | 9.59% | -5.16% | -2.29% | 11.80% | 5.65% |
| 2021年 |
1.42% | 0.93% | 0.41% | 5.40% | -1.53% | 5.49% | 1.16% | 4.00% | -5.31% | 7.27% | 0.25% | 0.69% |
| 2022年 |
-8.98% | -3.43% | 3.41% | -13.26% | -2.05% | -8.71% | 12.35% | -4.64% | -10.50% | 3.90% | 4.37% | -8.73% |
| 2023年 |
10.68% | -1.11% | 6.69% | 0.04% | 5.80% | 6.59% | 4.05% | -2.17% | -5.81% | -2.78% | 10.70% | 5.52% |
| 2024年 |
1.02% | 6.12% | 1.79% | -4.41% | 6.88% | 5.96% | -0.75% | 0.65% | 2.68% | -0.52% | 6.21% | 0.48% |
| 2025年 |
1.64% | -3.97% | -8.21% | | | | | | | | | |
